- Bitcoin hits $118,856, but retail interest remains muted, signaling market strength.
- MVRV ratio and STH SOPR show moderate profits—little sign of major profit-taking.
- Miners are holding BTC, with the Miner Position Index trending downward since late 2024.
- On-chain data suggests this bull run is sustainable and far from over.
Bitcoin Hits $118.8K — Why This Rally Still Has Legs
Bitcoin [BTC] surged to a new all-time high of $118,856 on July 11th, yet a deep dive into on-chain data shows something different from past euphoric peaks: a calm, composed market lacking retail frenzy. This signals that the current rally is built on healthier foundations—and could continue higher.
No Retail Frenzy in Sight
Despite the sharp price increase, Google Trends data shows low search interest in Bitcoin across the U.S.—far below levels seen during the 2020 and late-2024 bull markets.
CryptoQuant’s Spot Retail Activity metric confirms this. Retail participation, based on smaller trading positions and frequency, hasn’t surged since March 2024. This echoes patterns seen in February 2021, just before Bitcoin faced rejection near $60K due to overheated retail involvement.
MVRV Ratio Signals Stability
The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Ratio, a classic tool to measure market valuation and potential risk, stood at 2.2 on July 11th, well below the overheated levels of 2.7 seen in March and December 2024. This suggests the market is still operating in a relatively healthy zone.
Short-Term Holders Aren’t Taking Profits Yet
UTXO Age Bands show that only 15% of the Bitcoin supply belongs to Short-Term Holders (STH)—compared to 30% at previous peaks.
Additionally, the STH SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) indicates that these holders aren’t sitting on significant profits. Minimal profit-taking pressure supports the idea that the rally isn’t near exhaustion.
Miners Are Holding, Not Selling
The Miner Position Index has been falling steadily since November 2024, meaning miners are offloading fewer coins. Historically, miner accumulation has been a bullish signal, as these long-term market participants expect further price growth.
The BTC Rally Has Room to Run
Unlike past cycles, Bitcoin’s current breakout isn’t fueled by short-term hype, but by resilient market structure. With retail participation still low, miner accumulation growing, and moderate MVRV ratios, Bitcoin’s price action is pointing to more upside in the months ahead.
Investors and traders would be wise to watch for signs of increased retail entry, which could signal the next phase of the rally—but for now, Bitcoin’s bull run appears sustainable and just getting started.
