- Bitcoin surge to new highs may be delayed as retail investors’ high expectations often signal a short-term pause.
- Bitcoin’s historically weak third quarter, combined with steady interest rates, could keep its price subdued while Ethereum gains attention.
Bitcoin may be flirting with its all-time highs, but analysts are warning that a surge might not be in the cards for Q3 — and Ethereum could be the one to watch instead.
According to Santiment analyst Brian Quinlivan, Bitcoin’s current hype across social media is a double-edged sword. “We’re seeing anticipation for Bitcoin’s next ‘all-time high’ everywhere, which historically signals the opposite — a cooling off,” Quinlivan told Cointelegraph. With BTC trading just 2.1% shy of its record $111,970 as of June 11, expectations are soaring. But that optimism could delay the breakout.
“Markets often move in the opposite direction of retail sentiment,” he explained. “A few more ‘close calls’ without a breakout could cause small traders to lose faith — ironically setting the stage for a stronger rally later.”
Dr. Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive, agrees that Bitcoin may not shine in the short term. “Bitcoin will likely underperform in Q3,” he said, noting macroeconomic pressures like the Federal Reserve’s steady interest rates as a major headwind. CME’s FedWatch Tool shows a 99.9% chance rates remain unchanged this June, dampening risk appetite.
Historically, Q3 has been Bitcoin weakest stretch, averaging just 6.03% returns since 2013 — while Q4 has delivered a staggering 85.42% average gain, per CoinGlass.
As Bitcoin stalls, Ethereum appears to be gaining quiet traction. “There’s growing optimism toward Ethereum,” Quinlivan noted. After dipping to $1,472 in April, ETH has bounced back to $2,793 — though it remains 21.5% down year-over-year.
The broader market rotation from BTC to other altcoins may favor Ethereum’s “catch-up” play, especially if BTC’s rally pauses. And with summer vacations in full swing, Dawson predicts a seasonal dip in trading volume, potentially leading to sideways action or profit-taking pullbacks.
In the battle of crypto giants, Ethereum might just steal the spotlight this quarter — while Bitcoin bides its time.
