- Bitcoin supply on exchanges has dropped to an 8-year low at 7.53%, signaling reduced sell pressure and growing investor confidence.
- Bitcoin’s price could surge as institutional demand rises and on-chain data suggests a potential relief rally ahead.
Bitcoin’s supply on exchanges has plunged to its lowest level in eight years, fueling speculation about a potential new all-time high for BTC.
Bitcoin’s Exchange Supply Drops to 7.53%
According to a March 27 report from blockchain analytics firm Santiment, only 7.53% of Bitcoin’s total supply remains on exchanges—the lowest percentage since 2018. This suggests that more investors are moving their BTC into self-custody, reducing the amount available for immediate selling. Historically, such trends indicate growing confidence among holders and lower short-term sell pressure, which is often bullish for the price.
Institutional Demand Sparks Optimism
One of the key drivers of Bitcoin’s price movement has been institutional demand. Since March 14, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen steady inflows, pushing BTC up by more than 10%. In contrast, during the period between February 10 and March 13, ETF inflows were negative or stagnant, leading to a 17% drop in Bitcoin’s price.
This correlation underscores the influence of large investors on Bitcoin’s price trends, suggesting that continued institutional accumulation could further drive BTC’s recovery.
Changing Market Dynamics and Bitcoin’s Resilience
A March 25 report by OKX highlights shifting market behaviors in Bitcoin’s price cycles. Historically, a 50% drop was considered a bear market, with past cycles witnessing declines of up to 80%. However, as Bitcoin has matured, extreme sell-offs have become less common. Now, even a 30% dip can trigger bearish sentiment, indicating that the market is evolving.
The Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio—a key metric that compares Bitcoin’s current price to the average purchase price of short-term holders—showed bearish signs before the February 25 price drop. While the metric is currently below the 365-day moving average, analysts expect it to recover, potentially triggering a relief rally.
Can Bitcoin Break Its All-Time High?
As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $87,653—about 19% below its peak of $108,786. With declining exchange supply, increasing institutional demand, and evolving market behaviors, BTC may be gearing up for another major rally. If current trends persist, a new all-time high could be within reach sooner than expected.
