- Cardano trades within a falling channel as ADA price hovers near key support at $0.5450.
- On-chain data shows whales accumulating over 490 million ADA in 2025.
- Retail investors continue to sell amid price weakness and long liquidations.
- A breakout above $0.5939 could signal a short-term bullish rally toward $0.6186.
Cardano Price Forecast: ADA Eyes Channel Breakout as Whales’ Buying Spree Outpaces Retail Investors
Cardano (ADA) continues to move sideways within a falling channel, with its price down 1% on Tuesday and extending the previous day’s 0.88% drop. Despite this pullback, which has caused retail traders to offload their holdings, large investors—commonly referred to as whales—have taken the opportunity to increase their ADA exposure. This divergence between retail and whale activity hints at a possible shift in market dynamics.
Also Read : Cardano Surges Past ETH and SOL as Coinbase Boosts ADA With Major Launch
Smart Money Buys the Dip
According to on-chain data from Santiment, addresses holding over 1 million ADA now collectively control 23.74 billion ADA, up from 23.25 billion since January 4, 2025. Conversely, wallets with less than 100,000 ADA have decreased their holdings from 6.86 billion to 6.72 billion.
This pattern underscores a growing trend: while retail investors are reducing risk, larger players are positioning for a potential rebound. Internal links to your [Cardano Beginner’s Guide] or [How Whale Movements Affect Crypto Markets] can help readers explore these insights further.
ADA Derivatives Show Subtle Optimism
Derivatives data from Coinglass shows a modest 0.68% rise in Open Interest (OI), currently standing at $769.92 million. Additionally, a rise in the OI-weighted funding rate by 0.0074% suggests increased leveraged buying activity.
However, not all signals are bullish. Long liquidations totaled $949.98K in the last 24 hours, nearly triple the $333.06K in short liquidations. The long/short ratio of 0.9704 indicates a slight dominance of short positions, hinting at cautious sentiment in the derivatives market.
Technical Outlook: Can ADA Break Free?
Cardano remains stuck between a short-term support at $0.5450 and resistance at $0.5939. The falling channel—defined by trendlines from the May and June peaks and lows—continues to constrain ADA’s movement.
A close below $0.5450 may push ADA to retest June’s low of $0.5100. However, the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicator recently flashed a buy signal, with its MACD line crossing above the signal line. Despite this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 37 signals lingering bearish momentum.
To reverse the trend, ADA must break above $0.5939, which aligns with the channel’s upper boundary. If this occurs, the next major resistance lies at $0.6186—last touched on June 14.
Cardano’s current price action paints a picture of uncertainty, but the aggressive accumulation by whales and a subtle shift in derivatives data provide reasons for cautious optimism. As ADA hovers near critical technical levels, a breakout above $0.5939 could pave the way for a stronger recovery—provided the momentum indicators support it.
