- Ethereum (ETH) surged 13.5% to $3,000, but traders remain skeptical of a sustained rally.
- Futures and options markets reflect hesitation despite strong ETF inflows and Layer-2 growth.
- Declining network fees and stagnant demand for ETH continue to weigh on price momentum.
- TVL is rising, but lower decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes suggest limited usage growth.
- Institutional inflows helped the recent rally, but sustained buying pressure is uncertain.
Ethereum Price Rallies to $3K, But Confidence Still Lags
Ethereum (ETH) has shown signs of bullish momentum, rallying 13.5% in just two days to hit the critical $3,000 mark. Despite this impressive surge, professional traders remain hesitant to declare a breakout. ETH futures and options markets show only cautious optimism, casting doubt on the sustainability of this rally.
According to data from laevitas.ch, the Ether 30-day futures annualized premium stands at 5%, improving from 3.5% last week. However, this remains far below the bullish threshold, reflecting cautious sentiment compared to when ETH last traded above $3,300 in January.
Also Read: Ethereum Price Prediction: Bulls Eye $2,400 as Whales Accumulate in April 2025
Layer-2 Growth Fails to Translate Into Higher ETH Demand
Ethereum’s Layer-2 ecosystem continues to expand, but the associated growth hasn’t sparked greater demand for ETH. Lower rollup fees from innovations like data blobs have enhanced transaction efficiency but reduced overall fee revenue — critical for ETH’s burn mechanism.
Network fees on Ethereum have dropped 22% over the past month, falling to $34.8 million according to Nansen, limiting ETH’s supply-burning effect. Even with Ethereum’s total value locked (TVL) rising to $73 billion from $50 billion three months ago, DEX trading volumes hit a nine-month low. This disconnect shows that while funds are flowing into DeFi, actual usage isn’t rising in tandem.
In contrast, Solana (SOL) and Tron (TRX) — with far smaller TVLs — have generated significantly higher network fees, highlighting Ethereum’s struggle to convert DeFi growth into ETH demand.
Derivatives Markets Reflect Caution, Not Optimism
Options markets further highlight this uncertainty. The ETH 30-day delta skew currently sits at -3%, indicating a balance between bullish and bearish positions. This has been consistent over the past four weeks, signaling that traders aren’t betting heavily in either direction.
Meanwhile, ETH’s recent rally was supported by a $468 million net inflow into US-listed Ethereum ETFs and treasury purchases by ShapLink Gaming (SBET) and Bit Digital (BTBT). However, whether this institutional interest can drive ETH higher remains unclear.
What’s Next for Ethereum?
While Ethereum’s technical infrastructure continues to evolve, the lower network activity and mixed derivatives data suggest that ETH may struggle to maintain the $3,000 level without renewed demand.
