- Solana’s First-Ever ETF Launches July 2: The REX-Osprey SOL + Staking ETF will offer both spot price exposure and on-chain staking rewards—an industry first in the U.S.
- Short-Term SOL Rally Fizzles: SOL surged nearly 6% on ETF hype but quickly retreated, reflecting trader skepticism.
- Bearish Signals Persist: Weak derivatives performance, declining stablecoin liquidity, and a drop below key technical levels suggest short-term weakness.
- Upcoming Unstaking Pressure: Over $585M worth of SOL will be unstaked soon, potentially adding downward price pressure.
Solana ETF Launch Fails to Sustain SOL Price Rally
Solana (SOL) saw a brief 6% surge to $158.30 after confirmation that the first U.S. Solana spot ETF, dubbed the REX-Osprey SOL + Staking ETF, will go live on July 2, 2025. The ETF’s unique integration of on-chain staking rewards set it apart from previous crypto ETFs.
Yet, despite early optimism, the rally fizzled out, with SOL settling near $152.60 at press time. The token, while still 44% up YTD, is facing cooling momentum ahead of the ETF’s launch.
Caution Replaces Hype
Investor enthusiasm is now mixed. Many compare the ETF’s impact to Grayscale’s Solana Trust (GSOL)—which, despite being active for 43 months, only holds $75 million in assets, dwarfed by Ethereum’s $10B ETF momentum.
Furthermore, Solana’s derivatives data shows weakening sentiment. While long trades outnumber shorts, shorts are up by $6.71M, while longs are down $707K, indicating that traders who bought during the hype are now underwater.
Add to that a drop in Solana-based stablecoin market cap (from $13B in April to $10.5B) and a 90% decline in network revenue since January, and it’s clear the ETF launch might not be enough to sustain bullish momentum.
Solana Price Analysis: Caution Ahead
Technically, SOL has broken below the 50-day SMA and is hovering around a descending trendline it previously overcame. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 51, signaling waning buying strength.
SOL may now retest key support at $143.10, aligned with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. A break below this could expose deeper downside targets, including $126.48, the local low from last month.
Also Read: Solana Price Prediction: Why SOL is Crashing and What’s Next for This Crypto Giant
Notably, over $585 million in SOL is set to be unstaked in the next 60 days, potentially amplifying sell pressure and creating a near-term bearish overhang.
Can the ETF Offset Bearish Technicals?
Despite bearish signals, the launch of the REX-Osprey SOL + Staking ETF introduces a groundbreaking product to institutional investors. If day-one flows are strong, the ETF could reignite bullish sentiment and override technical concerns.
In crypto markets, perception often trumps fundamentals. A solid ETF debut might reverse SOL’s trajectory—at least temporarily.
SEO & Internal Linking Strategy
The REX-Osprey SOL + Staking ETF is a milestone for Solana, offering both exposure and passive income. However, market skepticism, weakening technical indicators, and on-chain metrics suggest SOL may struggle to sustain a breakout—unless ETF demand surprises to the upside.
