- Solana remains trapped in a distribution loop as whales buy dips and sell near resistance, preventing a breakout past $180.
- With nearly 160 million SOL bought between $144–$168 now sitting underwater, intense sell pressure continues to block its path to $200.
Solana Bounce Isn’t Enough
Solana (SOL) may have recently bounced 7%, but its dream of reclaiming $200 remains elusive. After peaking near $180 just a month ago, SOL is now struggling to stay above $150 — a harsh 30% drawdown in less than three weeks. While broader market weakness plays a role, Solana’s underperformance stands out among top cryptocurrencies, hinting at a deeper structural issue.
The culprit? A feedback loop of distribution that continues to trap retail investors in a cycle of hope and sell pressure.
A Heavy Supply Wall Looms at $180
According to Solana’s UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD), nearly 160 million SOL were bought between $144 and $168, creating a dense band of resistance — especially between $155 and $165. This range accounts for about 30% of SOL’s realized price, and most of those buyers are currently underwater.
Every time SOL rallies near $180, these holders are tempted to exit as they return to break-even or slight profit. This introduces heavy sell pressure just as momentum builds, capping the asset’s potential and reinforcing the very loop that stifles breakout attempts.
Smart Money Tightens the Trap
Unlike XRP, which is showing signs of steady accumulation despite its own range-bound movement, Solana whales appear to be reinforcing this distribution loop. Large holders are buying the dips and offloading near resistance — a tactical pattern that prevents the market from achieving a true breakout.
This strategic trading is not just holding SOL back — it’s actively reshaping the market’s psychology, keeping breakout hopes alive just long enough to trap liquidity.
$200: Still a Dream for Now
Unless smart money shifts from short-term distribution to directional accumulation, Solana’s path to $200 will remain blocked. The persistent sell wall, reinforced by past price memory and tactical whale behavior, has turned the $180 zone into a minefield.
For now, SOL’s breakout narrative is less of a bullish setup and more of a suspended dream, caught in a loop that only conviction can break.
